#5 Investment Sidebar Snapshots

Welcome to the fifth installment of Investment Sidebar Snapshots! I am resuming this series of newsletters in which I shared a variety of topics that by themselves are not enough content for a write-up, but they are too insightful not to don’t deserve any attention.

DISCLAIMER: This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument; the content is educational and my personal opinion. Each person must make their own analysis. Any action or decision you take as a result of viewing this article is your sole responsibility.

Support Independent Analysis

This newsletter will always be FREE! If you’d like to help sustain it, consider buying me a coffee. With your contribution, I will cover any annual costs I may incur and explore alternatives to enhance the experience.

Executive Summary

• Novo Nordisk Medicare Price Negotiations Outcome

• Novo Nordisk Prescription Data

• Schott Pharma Preliminary FY Results

• Next Investment Thesis - Celsys Inc.

Novo Nordisk Medicare Price Negotiations Outcome

Back in September 2024, Ozempic was selected to undergo Medicare price negotiations, aiming to reduce its net price by 40%-76%. Novo Nordisk's stock price dropped almost 4% that day.

One year later, the negotiated prices have been published, and the reduction has been lower than expected. However, Rybelsus and Wegovy were included as part of the negotiation.

Novo Nordisk´s Ozempic, Wegovy & Rybelsus will have a maximum Medicare price of $274 (or $385 for higher doses of Wegovy), starting in 2027.

2024 insurance's net prices of those drugs were:

• Ozempic: 290$ per month

• Rybelsus: 296$ per month

• Wegovy: 649$ per month

Under the new system, MFP is comparable to the insurance's net prices of the drugs and not the listed ones. This means:

• Ozempic & Rybelsus get their net prices reduced by -5.5% and -7.5% respectively, vs 2024.

• Wegovy will gain Medicare coverage by reducing its net price by 52.3% - 65.5%, vs 2024.

I am not concerned about Rybelsus; it doesn't represent a large portion of US sales, plus Novo Nordisk will likely prioritize pushing their coming oral obesity pill in North America.

On the other hand, Wegovy's Medicare net prices are in a similar price range to current cash price channel offerings after $NVO price cuts implemented in 2025.

Overall, I am satisfied with the outcome of the negotiation, and it is quite aligned with the strategy the previous management team was insisting on: Expand availability and affordability so higher volumes will compensate for price pressures.

Novo Nordisk Prescription Data

Last week @investseekers shared new information reported by Jyske Bank in connection with U.S. weekly prescription data of Wegovy vs Zepbound.

Week 46 of 2025:

• Wegovy ~145,000 new Rx

• Zepbound ~128,000 new Rx

→ Wegovy +13% w/w

Week 47 of 2025:

• Wegovy ~142,000 new Rx

• Zepbound ~135,000 new Rx

→ Wegovy ahead by ~5%

This is the first time that Novo’s Wegovy has outgrown Lilly’s Zepbound prescription volume for two consecutive weeks since April 2025.

What is more remarkable is to see the new branded GLP-1 prescription volume rise widely over 100k, considering Novo Nordisk reported in its Q3 2025 that the whole branded GLP-1 for obesity space was under 100k new prescriptions per week during the whole year.

There are two options: 1. The data is wrong or 2. The deal with the Trump administration has changed the whole competitive landscape.

Reports on the FDA prosecuting large compounders more aggressively suggest so. Although more data is needed to understand the deal’s impact.

Schott Pharma Preliminary FY Results

Schott Pharma published on Friday 5^th of December a press release with its preliminary results for FY25. FY25 results were within expectations. However, FY26 and mid-term guidance were revised downwards based on a large customer's lower demand for glass syringes.

Schott Pharma reportedly has told investors before that no customer represents more than 10% of its revenue. Hence, to cause a drag of approximately -5% in the whole business, the customer might be cutting its orders by 50%.

The stock got hit hard on Friday following the announcement, -7.79% on the day. Next weekend I will review and publish the complete earnings digest.

Next Investment Thesis - Celsys Inc.

During the last couple of months, I have been conducting due diligence on Adobe, the American creative software giant. At the same time I was investigating Adobe, I was watching many animes that are currently on air (I can recommend them all): Boku no Hero, One Punch Man, One Piece, etc.

Being aware of the rising popularity of all these genres across the Western world (e.g. Demons Slayer film has surpassed $1 billion box office collection, costing its production just $20 million), the question of what software (if any) is used by those creators popped on top of my mind.

Upon further investigation, I found that the most popular software among all those illustrators is Clip Studio Paint (CSP) developed by Celsys Inc. ($3663.T).

In the X thread above, I summarized the investment case in 5 min, but I have decided that I am dedicating the rest of the year to writing an investment thesis in connection with this company, as I think it poses an interesting opportunity to get exposure to one of Japan´s most thriving industries.

Hope you enjoyed the return of Investment Sidebar Snapshots after not writing one since September.

If you found today's insights helpful, please share them with a friend or colleague. It really helps the newsletter keep moving forward.

Stay Always Tuned!

Subscribe now and join a community of savvy investors. Receive the latest insights directly in your inbox each week, ensuring you never miss a valuable opportunity.