#4 The Journey of Compounding - H1 2025 Letter to Readers

The volatility of H1 2025 makes it especially important to reflect on the past six months and share my thoughts in this letter to the readers.

DISCLAIMER: This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, the content is educational and my personal opinion. Each person has to make his own analysis. Any action or decision you take as a result of viewing this article is your sole responsibility.

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Community Growth

If I was happy with 2024 growth I don’t know what to say now. We almost doubled the community in 6 months! From 165 newsletter subscribers to 305 subs and in X we grew from 868 followers to 1709 followers by the 30^th of June.

Regarding the two commitments I made at the beginning of the year:

1. Write a new investment case every quarter.

   So far I have written two qualitative analysis of two new companies but I am missing the quantitative part of both. I have spent Hopefully during H2 I will have more time and cath-up on this.

2. At least write four articles about new sectors.

   On track ✅

Portfolio Performance & Composition

H1 2025 has been the most challenging semester since I started investing back in H2 2022: tariffs & trade wars, economic weakness and recession fears, geopolitical tensions, etc.

Consequently, the stock market exhibited significant volatility while the U.S. dollar underwent substantial devaluation. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged to 21.76 in early April, reflecting intense market uncertainty as the S&P 500 plummeted 21.4% from mid-February to early April, triggered by the Trump administration’s aggressive “Liberation Day” tariffs announced on April 2. These tariffs, targeting key trading partners like China, Mexico, and Canada, escalated trade tensions and fueled investor fears. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar faced significant devaluation, driven by tariff-related trade disruptions, rising federal deficits, and inflationary pressures from protectionist policies. This weakness was compounded by foreign investors’ reluctance to hold U.S. assets amid ongoing trade wars and geopolitical risks, further undermining confidence in the currency. Despite a market rebound in late June, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reaching record highs, the combination of persistent volatility and a devalued dollar defined a challenging yet opportunistic environment for investors in H1 2025.