#2 Investment Sidebar Snapshots

Compiling One Month of Novo Nordisk News & Updates

Despite having provided a recent update on the company in the Quality Growth Universe podcast with @MDBBolsa.

Over the past few weeks, many news and relevant updates to the long thesis of Novo Nordisk have occurred. several interesting topics that aren't quite long enough for a dedicated newsletter. Hence, I'm dedicating the second Investment Sidebar Snapshots to compile all these novelties.

DISCLAIMER: This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, the content is educational and my personal opinion. Each person has to make his own analysis. Any action or decision you take as a result of viewing this article is your sole responsibility.

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Novo Nordisk Semaglutide Patent Expiration

Earlier this week, @Lab_Inversion shared a new from last week regarding the expiry in 2026 of an $NVO ( ▼ 2.93% )  patent in Canada. Let me share my finding with you

On the 10th of June Derek Lowe published an article "Novo Nordisk's Canadian Mistake" highlighting how the Swiss generics & biosimilars company Sandoz $SDZXF ( 0.0% )  is planning to commercialize a GLP-1 biosimilar in Canada during Q1 2026. 

Commercial branded drugs are protected by three IP layers:

1. Data Availability/Exclusivity

An innovator's protected clinical trial data can be referenced by generic or biosimilar manufacturers for their regulatory submissions.

2. API patents

These patents specifically protect the unique chemical composition and structure of the Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API), which is the foundational drug molecule.

3. Thicket patents

Collection of numerous patents beyond the core drug molecule that strategically protect various aspects of a drug (e.g., formulations, methods of use, devices) to extend market exclusivity.

Once granted, patents require periodic renewal, typically annually, through the payment of fees to each country where the intellectual property is protected. This renewal process is often outsourced to specialized firms that manage the payment schedule and administrative tasks, with fees usually ranging from hundreds to low thousands of dollar

Background

Exclusivity in Canada lasts 8 years and it is ending for $NVO semaglutide during January 2026. API patent CA2601784C protecting semaglutide molecule was set to in March 2026. However, $NVO failed to fulfill the renewal payments as long as March 2019.

After that, 6 month extension to fulfill the payment are applicable in Canada. $NVO had until October 2019 to make the payment and the Canadian Intellecutal Property Office (CIPO) informed them accordingly. However, the patent didn't expire until August 2020 as many patents were automatically extended as a consequence of Covid-19. See exhibit below.

Consequences

The three months difference between the data exclusivity period expiration & patent CA2601784C could seems so insignificant that could lead to us think that $NVO made the calculated decision of not to pay the yearly renewal fee.

However patent CA2601784C could have been extended 2 more years by getting a CSP (Certificate of Supplementary Protection) approved. And $NVO ( ▼ 2.93% )  did request it and got it approved.

In Canada expired patent can’t typically be reinstated, which consequently nullifies any corresponding Certificate of Supplementary Protection (CSP) extension.

As patent isirede the data exclusivity protection period of 8 years finishes new competitors like $SDZXF ( 0.0% ) will be able to commercialize their competing biosimilar (currently under revision for approval in Canada). However, numerous valid patents covering the dosage form, specific formulations, and other integral aspects of Ozempic and Wegovy remain valid into the next decade. This means that generic & biosimilar companies can commercialize semaglutide in Canada but is should be with another formulation, device, injector, etc. what will make it significantly more complex, tedious, less profitable and impact patient experience.  

Rumour

$NVO ( ▼ 2.93% ) hasn’t formally emitted a press release on the matter. However, it has been reported that internal sources have negated the patent expiry in Canada to be a mistake but a calculated strategic decision.

The thing goes as follows: In Canada, patented drugs fall within the jurisdiction of the Patented Medicine Prices Review Board (PMPRB) is a Canadian federal agency that plays a crucial role in protecting consumers by regulating the prices of patented medicines sold in Canada.

Consequently, $NVO ( ▼ 2.93% ) would have avoided PMPRB control by not keeping semaglutide patented, being free to set its price freely. My friend @MDBBolsa provides a great explanation in the thread below.

Novo Nordisk Terminates Collaboration with Hims & Hers Health

$NVO ( ▼ 2.93% ) broke down its commercial agreement with $HIMS ( ▼ 4.73% ) exactly one month after announcing it allegating that $HIMS was still mass compounding semaglutide and selling it follwing deceptive amrketing strategies (what I understand they mean for channeling customers into compounded versions instead of branded).

$HIMS ( ▼ 4.73% ) CEO later that day published on X a statement in which he reported $NVO ( ▼ 2.93% ) was exerting pressure on them to transition patients to branded semaglutide options disregarding what’s best for them.

I ran a poll in X to know what the community thought was the reason for this break up. Overall, most respondents believe the official narrative: $NVO ( ▼ 2.93% )  believed $HIMS ( ▼ 4.73% )  would continue only with 503A exception and faithfully transition patients to Wegovy, but they ended up being tricked by $HIMS ( ▼ 4.73% ).

I think $NVO ( ▼ 2.93% ) has been too nice (or maybe just Danish) and didn’t stood up to protect its IP as Eli Lilly has been doing from the very beginning. This association with further guarantee should have never occurred.

Compounded Semaglutide API Sourcing from Chinese Suppliers

On the same communication announcing the end of their collaboration with $HIMS ( ▼ 4.73% ) , Novo Nordisk claimed that most of the compounded semaglutide API was being sourced from Chinese suppliers who manufacture in non-FDA inspected facilities. See exhibit 1.

Exhibit 1: Number of manufacturers marketing semaglutide in the USA. Source: Brookings Institution report.

Supporting its claims, $NVO ( ▼ 2.93% ) referred to Brookings Institution (non-profit organization with more than 100 years of history) latest report on the issue, The Wild East of Semaglutide.

In connection with these claims, $HIMS ( ▼ 4.73% ) community on X echoed the claims from a former $HIMS ( ▼ 4.73% ) VP who assured that Hims & Hers uses the same Chinese supplier as Novo Nordisk.

That statement is inaccurate and misleading. It appears to confuse API manufacturing with raw material sourcing. It's completely unfounded, not only because $NVO ( ▼ 2.93% ) publicly discloses its supply chain locations in investor materials (see Exhibit [Exhibit Reference]), but also because Tier 1 pharmaceutical companies never outsource API manufacturing to low-cost suppliers in unreliable regions.

Exhibit 2: Novo Nordisk API manufacturing facilities worldwide location. Source: $NVO ( ▼ 2.93% ) investors materials.

GLP-1 Causing Increasing Number of Pancreatitis Cases in the UK

On the 26th of June, The Guarding published that the MHRA's Yellow Card scheme, which monitors adverse reactions to medications, has seen an increase in reports of acute pancreatitis associated with GLP-1 drugs.

To date, the Yellow Card scheme has received nearly 400 reports of acute pancreatitis from patients using Mounjaro, Wegovy, Ozempic, and liraglutide. Nearly half of these reports (181) involve tirzepatide (Mounjaro). More than a quarter of these cases have been reported in 2025 alone. Since the beginning of the year, there have been 22 reports linked to semaglutide (Ozempic and Wegovy) and 101 reports linked to tirzepatide (Mounjaro).

Patient information leaflets for GLP-1 medications list pancreatitis as an "uncommon" reaction, affecting approximately 1 in 100 patients. Due to the seriousness of acute pancreatitis, the MHRA aims to investigate potential genetic factors influencing these side effects. They are encouraging anyone hospitalized with suspected drug-related acute pancreatitis to report it to the Yellow Card scheme. These patients may then be invited to participate in the Yellow Card Biobank study, run by Genomics England, which involves providing further information and a saliva sample for genetic analysis.

I don’t think there is anything concerning on these news. The side-effects were known and $NVO ( ▼ 2.93% ) semaglutide is showing a better risk profile vs tirzepatide.

Hundreds of weight loss and diabetes jab users report pancreas problems

UK health officials launch study into side-effects of weight loss drugs after increased reports of acute pancreatitis

www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jun/26/weight-loss-diabetes-jab-users-report-pancreas-problems

Other News

  • Cigna reduces the copay on weight-loss drugs Wegovy & Zepbound to 200$/month.

  • $NVO ( ▼ 2.93% ) was the most purchased stock in Denmark in June 2025 according to Nordnet data, Denmark’s largest online broker for private investors.

  • American College of Cardiology urges the use of GLP-1 drugs for heart disease prevention.

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